Prognosticators have prognosticated tariff outcomes ranging from streets paved with gold, to global thermonuclear war.
What is your prognostication?
You will see the poll results once you have voted.
I did a scrap metal run for my neighborhood the other day. The foreman / manager was telling me that the price went down because of the tariffs. I didn’t believe him, but while checking out, I only got $24 versus the larger amount that I was expecting. Did I get hosed? Probably. Not sure how this will play out yet.
I went with quite worried. Mainly because it seems to have no clear goal. Every goal stated so far that anyone has tried to capitulate with, the goalposts have been moved. My confidence that there is anything resembling a plan here is waning.
Strategic tariffs? Yeah great.
Blanket tariffs? uhhh.. maybe not.
Weird blanket tariffs based on some strange reasoning that there can be balanced trade everywhere and constantly moving goal posts? Yeah not really down with that.
Also, I have to wonder if anyone involved REALLY understood how broken wall street was. I’m not sure the bankers’ constant crime and gaming of the system can survive this kind of disruption. I don’t really want to be left holding the bag for all the crap retail warned the SEC about and the government did nothing about.
Quite worried in that the world economy is complex and I highly doubt any one person or group of people can completely predict the outcome of radical disruption. I’m particularly worried on the pharmaceutical side as there is somebody in the circle of people I care about deeply who would have severe negative effects if there was even a slight disruption in the supply of some specific controlled drugs.
However, I also believe that trade negotiations in prior recent administrations didn’t have the OOMPH that the current negotiations do. Prior to this administration I believe foreign trade partners always doubted that the US was willing to endure substantial economic pain that reached its citizens and so foreign trade partners would routinely call any “bluff”.
I doubt they’re still thinking that.
I think many people share these same concerns of uncertainty. Even the initial tariff rate calculations were a dubiously oversimplified ratio of trade deficit to exports with a min floor of 10%. Thats it. No other considerations whatsoever like foreign trade policy concessions or anything to further fine tune the percentage.
The 90 day pause will buy time, but not clarity–the problem is just getting kicked down the road. The panic selloff will continue over the next few months as investors look to shore up portfolios and harden them for the upcoming market reactions. But then what? The resultant bond market turmoil isn’t exactly a safe haven right now. Oh well, guess i’ll just tack on another year or 2 to retirement.
Look at it this way. You get to retire after the dow has hit 50,000
The reality is, only a little over 50% of the population owns any stocks in the market, so the market fluxuations means nothing to half the population, and the top 10% of the population owns 90% of stocks.
So, for the far majority of the population, the scare tactics by a certain media group to the market crashing, is a big nothingburger for the majority of the population. Just more attacks on Trump.
Oh Darn… Doom and Armageddon averted… The DOW close on Friday is only down around 600 points from the day after Tariff destruction day, 7 days ago… Everyone can go back to living their lives without their hair being on fire…
Oh, and STOP watching Liberal MSM channels… it will melt your brain…
the guy that i sell scrap/junk vehicles to just gave me 550 2 weeks ago for a dead/rotted expedition. that’s been pretty much what it’s been for months now.
My 401k went up 200 bucks last week. Not worried at all.
I’m a ditch digger/caveman. This stuff isn’t my bag. Wife and I have “a guy”
Our portfolio early last week was down 10-12%.
He’s concerned a little bit.. he’s not concerned because this administration will make it back.
His concert comes from Trump haters trying to manipulate the markets. Sad but true.
I know we’ll make it back. We made more under Trump’s 3 years than Barry’s 8 years.
When COVID happened we took a beating but August that year got it all back. I have faith and hope that this administration can do a repeat. I don’t think it’ll happen in weeks or months though.
Exactly.. and this is the PRIMARY issue.. The Liberal MSM are really the biggest enemy of the country. Can you imagine how things would be, if they could get behind Trump in only a few key areas.
On that note, the DOW futures were back up another +500 points earlier this morning…
DOW gains back another +312 points at the close. Maybe the negative media hype isn’t working… again…
Y’all need to do some digging o the tariffs imposed by his predecessors. They did similar moves and nobody batted an eye. Hmmm… I wonder why?
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