President Trump signaled on Sunday that Operation Epic Fury could extend for four weeks, shifting our focus beyond the likely decline of certain air-delivered munition stockpiles to the question of whether a prolonged conflict begins tightening small-arms ammunition supplies and spilling over into civilian markets.
Beyond missiles and bombs, the possibility of a four-week conflict may spark governments into a buying frenzy of small-arms ammunition, rebuilding stockpiles, and funding allies, thereby tightening the consumer market. Then there is retail: whenever there is a risk of war, riots, or Democrats trying to take away their guns, some consumers always go into a buying panic of ammo and guns.
I think this is just highlights the need to maintain an “adequate” supply of ammo on hand at all times.. So that you can insulate yourself from the variety of factors that cause ammo price increases and/or shortages. Much like other areas of emergency preparedness. What is “adequate” is different for each person depending on their shooting needs, firearm types owned, budget, age, etc.
When I browse ammo, the volume of available ammo seems to be cut in half or more, there use to be 40 different 9mm offerings on a web site, now there are 20 available, and this goes for all calibers. The shear available volume is down, I don’t think we need a war to hose up the ammo situation in this country. That being said, I’m not worried.
In the short term, probably not. Ammo prices seemed to have bottomed out about a year ago from the pandemic highs and since then we’ve seen them creep up about 10%. Powder shortages, raw material costs (brass/copper/lead) as well as tariffs are all contributing factors. I don’t necessarily think the current conflict will impact civilian price or supply. If it turns into a longstanding ground occupation, that may change my outlook a bit as I would expect increasing prices during a conflict.
Checking on Outdoor Limited, just 9mm has at least 50 options available. While they don’t always have my favorite available, they have a good variety ranging from $0.21/rd to $2/rd depending on the load. Doesn’t seem like a shortage on that site right now vs pandemic times when there would only be a handful of options there.
