President Trump signaled on Sunday that Operation Epic Fury could extend for four weeks, shifting our focus beyond the likely decline of certain air-delivered munition stockpiles to the question of whether a prolonged conflict begins tightening small-arms ammunition supplies and spilling over into civilian markets.
Beyond missiles and bombs, the possibility of a four-week conflict may spark governments into a buying frenzy of small-arms ammunition, rebuilding stockpiles, and funding allies, thereby tightening the consumer market. Then there is retail: whenever there is a risk of war, riots, or Democrats trying to take away their guns, some consumers always go into a buying panic of ammo and guns.
I think this is just highlights the need to maintain an “adequate” supply of ammo on hand at all times.. So that you can insulate yourself from the variety of factors that cause ammo price increases and/or shortages. Much like other areas of emergency preparedness. What is “adequate” is different for each person depending on their shooting needs, firearm types owned, budget, age, etc.
When I browse ammo, the volume of available ammo seems to be cut in half or more, there use to be 40 different 9mm offerings on a web site, now there are 20 available, and this goes for all calibers. The shear available volume is down, I don’t think we need a war to hose up the ammo situation in this country. That being said, I’m not worried.
In the short term, probably not. Ammo prices seemed to have bottomed out about a year ago from the pandemic highs and since then we’ve seen them creep up about 10%. Powder shortages, raw material costs (brass/copper/lead) as well as tariffs are all contributing factors. I don’t necessarily think the current conflict will impact civilian price or supply. If it turns into a longstanding ground occupation, that may change my outlook a bit as I would expect increasing prices during a conflict.
Checking on Outdoor Limited, just 9mm has at least 50 options available. While they don’t always have my favorite available, they have a good variety ranging from $0.21/rd to $2/rd depending on the load. Doesn’t seem like a shortage on that site right now vs pandemic times when there would only be a handful of options there.
Just another point of reference, from a email from SGammo:
Demand For Ammo Is The Highest It’s Been In Years - Get Yours While Good Deals Are In Stock @ SGAmmo
**We have seen extremely strong sales on ammo the past 9 days, with daily sales volume double to triple that of February averages and demand at the highest point it has been since October 2023. On Friday March 6th, I actually got up from my desk job and picked orders in the warehouse for 3 hours to help the crew stay on track shipping them out, and I also observed the inventory in our warehouse aisles getting very thin in many places.
This recent rush of high demand has wiped out my inventory of many products that are stocked in smaller quantities or that have been limited in supply recently, and supply of the most popular products is being quickly diminished as well. However we still have a lot of great stuff in stock that is also priced right to buy from today.**
It would be a good time to stock up on ammo while many of the best and most popular options are still availability. Slow sales this past summer caused many major ammo factories to reduce production, decrease raw material stockpiles, lay off employees, and take other cost reducing steps that now limit their capacity to ramp production back up to meet higher demand levels. I expect that it will be more difficult to restock popular products at the lowest price points in the weeks and months ahead, and supplies of many of the most popular products to run dry or be spotty in availability at best.
Spent the better part of this morning dong case prep, sorting and some research. Getting ready for a batch of 1000 62gr FMJ range fodder. 7 cents per bullet, 15 Cents powder, 3.5 cents primer, brass, FREE. 25.5 cents per pew.
Man, I thought the supplies were expensive at the time I bought them.
I guarantee you will save 50%, I just can’t say when.
When Trump was elected first term, by year two the price of guns and ammo cratered. You could get a complete AR then for like $350, they couldn’t give guns away because everyone already stocked up (and now broke) from panic buying. Ammo dropped below pre Newtown prices for a long while. That was the window of opportunity. Every time I shot ATA trap on Sundays, I stopped at the Shooter supply and pick up something. That was right up until when The Wu Flu struck. Have not bought anything since, really don’t need to, maybe some shotgun powder in a couple years.
Reloading handgun is very inexpensive and a LOT easier than dealing with bottleneck rifle cartridges. Most 9mm loads use only 3 to 4 grains of powder. You get 4x the reloads for pistol compared to shotgun where I use 16 grans of 700x. Like, $180 bucks buys you enough powder to reload 7000 rounds of 9mm.
I wish I was more into handguns, it’s be a helluva lot cheaper to shoot than trap, eh, but then again, my trap range “membership” only set me back the cost of a hunting license.
Bottom line. Reloading does pay off but in different ways for different people. I make match grade rounds for my SPR that would cost nearly $2/ea. My precision handloads only cost about 55 to 65 cents depending on the bullet powder combo I use. Savings aside, my handloads are more accurate than anything i can buy.
