So who is going to be our choice for the GOP candidate for Gov

She sounded rehearsed and was a smarmy snot. She may have been quick with retorts, but there is something about her that I think will turn off women. My wife asked me (honestly) if sherrill was a man.

She wasn’t better than last time. Her normal canned responses sounded better.

She talks in generalities and gives platitudes, but NEVER gives specific details on how any of her plans will work. But brain dead Democrats will still fall for it.

Her favorite word of the night, ā€œmisinformationā€, which is also a favorite of the MSM.

Jack missed a few knock-out chances. One big one was when she accused him of making millions on his app. He accused her of making millions on defense stock trading when she was on the armed services committee.

She said she listed all her assets. Jack needed to jump on her about feeding her husband inside information, to make millions on these trades, just like what Pelosi has been doing with her husband for decades. Jack missed a big chance there.

Ciattarelli to sue for defamation over ā€˜mass murder’ claim

Chris Russell, a senior advisor to the Ciattarelli campaign, said the suit will likely be filed next week by campaign attorney Mark Sheridan.

ā€œIn a time where political violence and violent rhetoric are becoming all too prevalent, Mikie Sherrill baselessly and recklessly accusing a political opponent of mass murder in a televised debate crosses the line,ā€ Russell said.

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Jack needs to up his dang game. Vanilla Harris ads are now saying he voted to support sexual predators. This nice guy stuff ain’t gonna win votes. OTOH maybe Mikie is getting desperate.

And rapists

Only her crazy base will embrace this, I say let them.
Very possible it will disgust the independents and moderate dems into voting against her

https://xcancel.com/MattRooneyNJ/status/1978254764073714152#m

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Well ain’t that some sh*t!

Not really, Jack has been a long-time established Trenton swamp elitist. Sherril is the newcomer.

Fair enough. But if it somehow helps him get elected then whatever

Left leaning Fox News Poll, has Vanilla Harris only up by 4 points today with registered voters. Three weeks ago, they had her up by 7 points.

And, more important, I look at WHO they polled, to see the spread. They polled 48% Dems and 40% Repubs. So, they polled 8% more, to get a 4% advantage.

Remember, the polls with Murphy/Jack, had Murphy almost +8 points up to the day of voting, he actually beat Jack by just under +3 points.

I’m watching this election. If yall get out the vote, I think Jack will be the next Gov of NJ.

Mikki has the likability of a rectally inserted cactus.

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Holey Crap!! Jack has a shot!! New poll released by the Trafalgar Group last night. These guys have been the most accurate over the past handful of elections. It’s a one point game!

Posted on October 16, 2025

Ciattarelli: 44%

Sherrill: 45%

Other: 4%

Undecided: 7%

800 Likely Voters; MOE 3.46%

More information: I looked at WHO they polled again, out of those 800 people:
Dems: 352
Repubs: 272
Indy: 176

So, once again, oversampled Dems by quite a bit, to only get a 1 point advantage.

O…M…G…

Who could have ever guessed that?

:thinking:

That’s not quite how it works. The random sample pool is 800, of the 800, they received more D responses because there are more Ds in NJ. The polling group did not seek more Ds than Rs.

Lets put it in a dfferent perspective. If I were to do market research on fast food, and the client wanted 1000 responses, it would only be natural to get more responses from Mc D’s patrons than Popeye’s. Does this mean Mc D’s was over sampled, or prevalent in a random sample pool?

Right, we know there are more D’s in NJ than R’s. Which would typically bring more D responses versus R responses, and D’s respond to polls more. But even with more D’s, they could only muster a 1 point advantage. It should be higher.

Also, R’s typically don’t respond to these pollings, they are considered ā€œsleeper cellsā€.

Remember, the general average of all polls last time between Murphy and Jack, had Murphy up close to 8 points going into election day. He only actually won by less than three.

Don’t underestimate the power of the Sleeper Cells.

If any of these polls called me I would tell them I am registered Dem and that I’m going to vote Repub.

I registered Dem just so I could vote in their primary against Tammy Murphy.

Here’s another way to look at it. 800 people were polled, we know there are more D’s in the state, so it’s no surprise they gave more responses.

So, out of 800, 352 said they were D’s, which equals 44%
Out of 800, 272 said they were R’s, which equals 34%
Out of 800, 176 said they were Indy, which equals 22%.

So, with a 10% higher response for D’s, Vanilla Harris gained one point over Jack.

Compare that to the results of the 2021 Governor election between Phil and Jack.

Phil: 51%
Jack: 48%

So, the ratio collected in that last poll doesn’t represent the voter makeup from the last election.

What do you think the poll results would have been if they just polled 3% more D’s, instead of 10% more?