Way too much optimism going on here. After decades of watching these cases and the States always winning, I’m skeptical at best.
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I remember the same sentiment about the possibility of carrying.
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How long did that take 30, 40yrs? And we are still so limited to where we can actually carry in this State that it’s a joke. Remember, all firearms are illegal in NJ is still on the books.
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Heard it ~2 years ago, right as Bruen was decided. “Never gonna be allowed in NJ”.
About to head out while carrying. Decry all the restrictions, etc., but the fact remains - I’m carrying.
For some the change is never fast enough or complete enough. For me, I’m happy that in my ~20 years of being a NJ firearms owner the change has more positive probability and speed than ever before.
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You proved his point, you’ve been an owner for 20 years, others a lot longer. How long have handguns been available for sale in the state? So, just recently, we’ve been able to get a CCW permit… It’s taken a LONG time to get here.
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Yep. And all along it was “nevah gunna happen”, right up until - it happened.
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So if the AWB is struck down , do evil features go away and can we get WW2 korean war vintage m1 carbines
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”I believe we revert to federal rules on long guns.”
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If it is struck down in its entirety, yes it is open season on pretty much any configuration for semi-auto rifles.
It is highly unlikely that the 3rd Circuit en banc will adopt the insane position that it only applies to Colt AR-15 rifles because that was what was talked about the most.
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In theory, yes but it depends how narrowly the court writes their decision. If it says “AWB is null and void” then it should be fair game. If it says “sections banning the AR-15 and threaded muzzles are null and void” then M1 Carbines and bayonet lugs are theoretically still verboten.
I think we will win in the third on this. What is up for debate is what will come after that.
In general, I don’t think anyone will ask NJ to fall on their sword and not appeal to SCOTUS. If there were no other cases out there pressure might be applied, but a circuit split doesn’t stop being a circuit split just because the state doesn’t appeal.
Where it gets debatable about pressure and results, is the NJ response on appeal.
My knee jerk reaction is that they will make a permitting scheme and try to moot the case at SCOTUS.
The question is will that be accepted, and what form it will take.
As to accepted, the answer is probably. I think it’d have to be pretty abusive to not be mooted, as the entire federal court system is really big on staring at a law that is blatancy unconstitutional, ignoring any chilling effect, and then insisting you don’t have standing until the law is enforced.
That being said, I think what NJ would want to do is create a permitting system and move all semi automatic weapons into the permitting system. I think something this broad would kill their chance at mooting. I also think there would be pressure from peer states and gun grabbers because this would instantly tee off more suits, and those suits would pose questions that would be analogous to questions that would greatly endanger the whole NFA thing. I think the converse possibility of losing would put some pressure on the RKBA orgs to participate in crafting some law that would be more palatable. FPC and GOA won’t be there participating, but NRA/ANJRPC and SAF probably would.
I think the two things are really on the table that could be done in a way the state won’t have it blow up in their faces. 1) Permitting, because Bruen protected permitting as a concept. 2) Registries. Because as much as the RKBA crowd gets upset about registries, they don’t really make for a 2a issue. Maybe a 4th issue, but we are very much lacking a lot of law on our side for no registries (point me at anything interesting that might indicate otherwise).
So at the lightweight end of things, they could rejigger the assault weapon registry. Require FFLs to maintain one, report it to the state, and basically force you to buy in state as out of state FFLs won’t want to comply. Similarly add high cap mags to the registry and ban purchasing out of state effectively. The latter bit would always be a mess because tons of us still own such things even if they don’t currently reside in NJ. It also gets fun with people with multiple homes in multiple states.
Next step up would be fees. You could just add onerous fees to the above. This of course could be challenged, but the legal case would largely be how much they can get away with unless we got a really radical ruling on permitting fees for enumerated rights.
They could do something like require permitting similar to getting your AOW stamp or even more intrusive at reasonable fees to just make it a time sink and slow roll your rights. Or they could split the difference and do that, but let you bypass it with a PTC or PTC with endorsement.
I think if we see the various flavors off carry killer bills smacked down hard enough, we will see a switch from the “oh yeah, well I’m going to make it worse” style grabbing to more frog boiling types of schemes.
If they were smart, they would stop for a moment, look at how they are having to spend in NJ to keep poll numbers up for this election, look at how unpopular these schemes are across increasingly broad demographics, and just switch gears to grifting off of “gun safety” legislation that is actually about promoting safety and reducing crime rather than banning guns and messing with gun owners as a political group.
We’ll see. Unless it is very reasonable, it will be a mess, because a lot of us will be moving our shit bakc home the day of a ruling, or yu won’t be able to prove we didn’t, and you will see a whole lot of stuff that does not fit cleanly into their scheme.
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Don’t we have something like that already?
It’s called the 4473.
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Could someone check my last post from 5 hours ago? I do not remember deleting it despite what the tag/message says.